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Back to the Banks

Back to the Banks

Trades in Soda and Whisky; On 4 December 2024, just a few weeks ago, the Bank of England pointed to four rate cuts this year as inflation would come down faster than we thought it would. Much has changed since then, and UK inflation expectations have shot up. What looked

The Multi-Asset Investor: Flash Note

The Multi-Asset Investor: Flash Note

Trade in Soda; Following my recent note it has become clear that the long-end of the bond market is in trouble. In November, I had taken the view that the yield back at 2002 levels represented good value and would prove effective should the stockmarket turn down. That level was

Bonds and Rebalancing Bitcoin

Bonds and Rebalancing Bitcoin

Trades in Whisky and Soda; On Monday, 20th January, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President. They say a week is a long time in politics; well, that’s nearly two. Before we even consider what happens in the first 100 days, he will probably be sentenced

Happy Christmas from the Fed

Happy Christmas from the Fed

I made some comments in yesterday’s ByteFolio, where we cover Bitcoin and crypto. For those unaware, the first part each week has a few comments on Bitcoin and is free to read. The rest of it is premium and covers crypto tokens. I would encourage readers interested in Bitcoin

What Is the Bond Market Telling Us?

What Is the Bond Market Telling Us?

Trade in Soda; Before we get to bonds, I highlight the global stockmarket, which has been riding high this year but now faces deteriorating breadth. That is, the number of stocks in an uptrend is falling. The current reading is 61%, which is workable but falling. Fewer stocks are supporting

Gold and X-ray Machines

Gold and X-ray Machines

Trade in Whisky; Syria falls, and they have lost their entire air force since Sunday. Gold inched higher, along with the dollar, yet oil shrugged it off. There was also a modest momentum crash as the prevailing winners in the stockmarket stalled while the losers rallied. The fact that the

Lower Rates Lead to Real Estate

Lower Rates Lead to Real Estate

Trade in Soda; I recently added the long bond to the Soda Portfolio as evidence that inflation was calming enough to stabilise the bond market. Inflation may have been cooling for two years, but the bond market was still in the turbulence of the hikes of 2022. It seems 5%