Positive Progress in Crypto Despite Seasonal Weakness in September
Disclaimer: Your capital is at risk. This is not investment advice.
ByteFolio Issue 125;
The recent Bitcoin low was above the August low, which is positive. The price made a 20-day high and is back above its 30-day moving average, which is rising. A couple of good days would see the ByteTrend score of 4/5 improve. Bitcoin to be weak in September is not unusual, and the seasonal strength that historically begins in October is just two weeks away.
Bitcoin Scores 4/5 on ByteTrend
The price is $58,500 when fair value is $62,278. Not only that, but the fair value is rising because the network activity is growing. If we were looking at a 2018-style wipeout, the network would be collapsing, and it isn’t. It is alive and well, and the market remains hugely liquid. Once Bitcoin rallies, we’ll be ready for altcoin season.
Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island, produced a report and survey on stablecoins in conjunction with Visa. It is a good piece of work, using Chainalysis data, and shows that issuance is now $160 billion, with 70% dominance from Tether. They settled $3.7 trillion in 2023 and $2.63 trillion in the first half of 2024. While much of that settles on Ethereum, for smaller transactions where fees really matter, the winners are TRON and Binance. The most engaged countries are Turkey, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia and India. It is a fascinating read, and if anyone ever asks if crypto has a use case, send them this report.
The UK Parliament is taking digital assets more seriously, and it was a pleasure to see a bill that “will mean that for the first time in British history, digital holdings including cryptocurrency, non-fungible tokens such as digital art, and carbon credits can be considered as personal property under the law.”
Good progress.
